A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
