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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and recent underperformers improving together. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still